predicting hurricanes

Predicting hurricanes? In November? Some cold current can change the rain to sleet. Some air moving from the Midwest could  induce a change in the storm direction. Predicting elections?
Weather or  people choosing? which one can be answered with more reliability?  Scientific reliability.
Give me a good model and I will give you an answer. With all the caveats....

Nothing to say -

No plan Obama and plan du jour Romney could not produce any  excitement in their foreign debate last night. And so will be the election. Unexcited voters dragged to the polls. The country is near a financial precipice.No scare bRombama!  Say nothing, Do nothing, You might disturb the precarious balance and the avalanche...

Iranian Bomb

A bomb from NYT. In this article, cooked just before the elections,  everybody talks and everybody denies. Should one talk to the Iranians?  Who will deny first? They always talk about the big Satan. The breakthrough seems to be that they accepted to talk to Satan. Probably they see themselves as martyrs for doing this.
It's nothing. A rumor in the bazaar
- to lower the price of oil.